Setting aside strategy formulation and focusing solely on technical indicators, Bitcoin is oscillating near a key retracement zone. In the short term, there is some rebound elasticity, but in the medium to long term, it remains in a high-level correction.

The 7-day simple moving average (SMA7) is around $90,567.86, and the 30-day is around $93,604.98. The current price is slightly below both moving averages, indicating short-to-mid-term weakness.
The 200-day moving average is around $109,381.98, which is significantly higher than the current price, suggesting that the long-term cost of this rally is high, and we are currently in a downward correction phase.

The RSI14 is about 42.29, sitting at the lower end of the neutral range (30 to 70), which means it is "somewhat oversold, but far from extreme panic."
The MACD main line is negative, but the bars are positive, indicating that downward momentum is weakening, with a tendency to form a bottom or consolidation platform rather than a unilateral plunge.

Key price levels and Fibonacci retracement are as follows:
Recent swing high is around $107,428.26, and the low is around $80,659.81.
The 50% retracement level is about $94,044.04, and the 61.8% retracement level is about $90,885.36. The current price of $89,667.17 is slightly below the 61.8% retracement, which is considered a "deep retracement zone."

Against this backdrop, we can roughly outline a few short- and mid-term scenarios (not predictions, but conditional scenarios):
1. Range-bound oscillation as the baseline scenario
If the $80,000–$82,000 area (near the recent low) continues to hold, the price will likely oscillate between $85,000 and $100,000 in the short term, allowing time to digest previous profit-taking and leverage.

2. Upward recovery scenario
If the price climbs back above the $94,000–$100,000 range with increased trading volume and the MACD turns positive, it may challenge the previous high near $107,000 or even attempt a new high.

3. Another leg down scenario
If there is a clear macro or regulatory negative in the future, and high leverage in derivatives builds up again while the $80,000 support fails, we could see a deeper correction toward the $70,000–$75,000 range.

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