Let's talk about the upcoming macro environment of the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve's dot plot is dovish, showing two interest rate cuts in 2026, one in 2027, and no change in 2028. In this case, the widespread expectation of large-scale liquidity injection is no longer valid, and CZ's prediction that the super cycle driven by the Fed's large-scale easing will also be invalidated.
Then we see that the Fed has purchased $40 billion in Treasury bonds, which many believe to be an expansion of the balance sheet.
However, this $40 billion belongs to RMP, and its purpose is not to stimulate the economy or actively inject liquidity, but to maintain the minimum reserve safety threshold of the banking system. This is to prevent the banking system from being stripped too much due to factors such as the Treasury's fund reallocations, tax payments, and end-of-year corporate settlements.
QE = active expansion of the balance sheet, aimed at lowering long-term interest rates and increasing systemic liquidity, commonly known as liquidity injection.
QT = active reduction of the balance sheet, aimed at draining liquidity and tightening the financial environment.
RMP = completely different from QE; it is about maintaining the water level and avoiding systemic water shortages.
The essence of RMP is that the Federal Reserve replenishes the water that has fallen, not adding more water to the pool.
Therefore, this is not an expansion of the balance sheet. The Fed explicitly stated in its announcement two points: RMP will maintain a relatively high pace until April 2026 because the Treasury will significantly increase non-reserve liabilities in April. But after April, as seasonal factors disappear, the purchase scale will rapidly decline.
What truly determines liquidity is not RMP, but whether the SLR is relaxed, whether banks can expand their balance sheets, whether the Treasury continues to replenish the account, and whether the Fed will reduce the ON RRP scale.
Next, we need to continue monitoring the non-farm payroll data on December 16$BTC , November( and the CPI data on December 18), November(. Non-farm payrolls are likely to be poor because November is the late stage of the US government shutdown, which has significantly impacted the economy. The focus is on November's CPI; if, after the rate cuts in September-October, the CPI in November did not rebound, it would reduce the obstacles for the Fed to further loosen policy.
In summary, the current macro environment is not very optimistic, at least the hope for the Fed's large-scale easing in 2026 is temporarily out of sight.