Brother Liang's Daily Gold Gains — Next Week's Gold Market Outlook

Overnight gold prices surged then pulled back, with spot gold briefly reaching 4353, approaching October highs, before retreating to around 4300 for consolidation. Gold prices remain firmly supported above 4200 in the long term, but short-term bullish and bearish divergences are intensifying, with market opportunities and risks rising simultaneously. Next week will enter a key data-driven phase, with the main themes as follows:

Long-term support remains solid, based on three key reasons: First, the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, lowering to 3.50%-3.75%, weakening the dollar and boosting gold attractiveness; second, global central banks continue to buy gold, with China increasing holdings for 13 consecutive months, reflecting steady institutional demand; third, tight supply and demand structure, limited mineral growth, and strong technological and consumer demand provide underlying support for gold prices.

Short-term trends will be dominated by two major variables: First, next week's US CPI and employment data, which will directly influence gold price direction—if CPI is below 2.8%, gold may rally to the 4350-4380 range; if between 2.8%-3.0%, expect fluctuations between 4220-4300; if above 3.0%, a pullback to support levels of 4150-4200 is possible. Second, market expectations and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations may amplify price volatility.

Risks to watch include: technical overbought pressures emerging, leading some long positions to close; if US economic data remains strong, it could boost the dollar and suppress gold prices.

Overall, next week’s gold is expected to fluctuate strongly under solid support, with the long-term trend unchanged and short-term movements guided by data. Rational positioning is necessary, avoiding emotional trading and focusing on risk management.