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Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in 2025:
• From the beginning of the year to October: a strong rally, reaching a high of approximately $126,000 USD (a new all-time high in October).
• November: a sharp correction, down over 16%, marking the largest monthly decline in recent years, mainly due to ETF fund outflows, macro risk aversion, and liquidity liquidation.
• December start: continued downward, with an intraday dip below $90,000 USD, even approaching the $86,000 USD support level, but then rebounded.
• Currently: prices fluctuate in the $83,000-$95,000 USD range, with key support around $86,000-$88,000 USD and resistance around $93,000-$95,000 USD.
Factors influencing the market include:
• Negative: record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs (over $3.5 billion USD in November), Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, AI-related tech stocks dragging down risk assets, and overall market risk aversion.
• Positive: continued institutional adoption, supply scarcity (continuing the 2024 halving effect), potential regulatory improvements (such as expectations of Trump-era policies).
Short-term market sentiment remains cautious, with the Fear & Greed index showing “Fear” levels, and technical indicators signaling a bear market, but the long-term trend remains upward.