🚨Ethereum is about to close the weekly candle. Let’s talk about the script for next week.

Script A: Hawkish Rate Hike (The most feared version for risk assets)

Conditions
• BOJ raises to 0.75% and emphasizes “inflation/wages and the subsequent rate hike path,” prompting the market to start pricing in a higher terminal rate.
• USD/JPY volatility rises (the key is not just the direction, but the volatility).

Typical ETH reaction
• Initial “liquidity withdrawal” mechanical selling pressure: sell the most liquid assets (ETH falls into this category).

Corresponding market actions
• If the weekly/daily level effectively breaks below 2,892.72 (not just a wick, but a close below), the next target is likely 2,453.71 (see the white line on the chart).
• This is not a prediction, but “the next step in the structure.”

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Script B: Dovish Rate Hike (The most common, and also the easiest to “trap and rebound”)

Conditions
• BOJ raises as expected but emphasizes “slow pace, watching data, avoiding a sudden tightening of financial conditions,” pulling the market back from the “continuous rate hike” expectation.

Typical ETH reaction
• After “bearish news is priced in,” risk assets recover, and ETH will show a “rebound confirmation.”

Corresponding market actions
• First confirmation: return to and stabilize within the 3,137–3,219 range.
• Second confirmation: break through 3,259.96.
• Only after confirming these can we look at 3,505; otherwise, it’s likely just a rebound rather than a trend reversal.

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Script C: No rate hike / Unexpected dovish turn (Low probability, but maximum impact)

Conditions
• BOJ remains on hold due to external shocks or financial stability concerns (the market has already priced in a rate hike, so the bigger the surprise, the greater the volatility).

Typical ETH reaction
• The first response might be a “spike” in risk assets, but then it will enter a secondary volatility phase of “US data re-pricing” (since US data remains dense next week).

Corresponding market actions
• First, see if ETH can quickly recover above 3,259 and challenge 3,505. If it cannot, be prepared for “spike and fall back.”

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$ETH The “monitoring panel” most important this week/next week (not watching this = blind flying)
1. USD/JPY “volatility state”: direction is secondary, volatility is the lever reduction trigger.
2. VIX and credit spreads (HYG): credit worsens first, risk assets follow.
3. Whether ETH holds above 2,892.72: holding = still oscillating and recovering; losing support = weekly-level decline towards 2,453 in a high-probability zone.
4. Whether the rebound can hold above 3,219 / 3,259: cannot hold = rebound is just easing pressure; can hold = structural recovery can be discussed.