The US non-farm payroll report released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labor market, ending months of partial blind spots. After a highly divided meeting this week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting, debating whether to prioritize tackling high inflation or addressing a soft labor market. Citi economists noted that the upcoming employment report could send more mixed signals. The bank expects October employment to decrease by about 45,000 jobs, while November is expected to see an increase of 80,000. Citi economists stated that this rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a “genuine improvement in worker demand.” They also forecast the unemployment rate to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters survey of economists indicated an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Fed’s own quarterly forecast shows a median unemployment rate of approximately 4.5% by the end of this year.

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