📊 Important Data and Events Preview for Next Week (Must Read)

For stocks, cryptocurrencies, and U.S. Treasuries

Next week will be an extremely critical week. It’s a week that requires full attention

Employment, inflation, and interest rates will all provide answers simultaneously, leaving no room for ambiguity in the market.

This will serve as a concentrated test of “How is the US economy really doing?”
It will also directly determine the Federal Reserve's stance, interest rate expectations, and the direction of risk assets.

📅 Monday

• 🟠 21:30 US December New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (Empire State)
• One of the earliest regional manufacturing data releases
• Key focus:
　- Is manufacturing continuing to contract?
　- Does it align with subsequent PMI signals?
• Importance: Medium
• Role: Sets the tone for macro expectations this week

📅 Tuesday (Employment + Consumer Data Double Day)

• 🔴 US November Non-Farm Payrolls Report (Big Non-Farm) & Unemployment Rate
• Long-term missing employment data, long-standing market debate
• Key focus:
　- Is employment cooling significantly?
　- Does it validate the “soft landing” narrative?
• Importance: Extremely High

• 🔴 US November Retail Sales Data (Critical Data)
• Directly reflects US consumer spending strength
• Impact: Consumption → GDP → Monetary Policy

• 🟠 S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI
• Used to verify business sector prosperity

📅 Thursday (Inflation + European Central Bank)

• 🔴 European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision
• Focus on whether they continue to signal rate cuts

• 🔴 US November CPI Inflation Data (Major)
• Key basis for Fed’s “hesitant to cut” stance
• Focus on core CPI and inflation stickiness

• 🟠 US Initial Jobless Claims
• Largest increase since March 2020 last time
• Watch for whether there is a trend of deterioration

📅 Friday (Super Risk Day ⚠️）

• 🔴 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision
• Market expectation: Very high probability of rate hike
• Historical note: BOJ tends to trigger cross-market volatility

• 🟠 Consumer Confidence Index & Inflation Expectation Data

✅ Next Week's Core Logic

Employment sets the direction
Inflation provides the answers
Interest rates create volatility

• Cooling employment + retreating inflation → Risk assets benefit → Crypto sentiment improves
• Strong employment + sticky inflation → Delay in rate cuts → Market under pressure

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