Interest Rate Cut Rumors: Why Do Fed's Favorable Moves Turn into a "Stumbling Block" for the Crypto Market?

作者：Hotcoin Research

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.13 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 58.7%, amounting to $1.83 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $309.1 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.49%. Stablecoins have been steadily growing for three consecutive weeks, with USDT representing 60.21%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while some have risen. Specifically: BTC has decreased by 0.14% over 7 days, ETH has increased by 2.34%, SOL has decreased by 1.52%, M has surged by 25.79%, and ZEC has risen by 16.26%.

This week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs amounted to $286.2 million; net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs reached $209 million.

Market Forecast (December 15 - December 21):

Currently, the RSI index is 46.17 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 28 (above last week’s level, in the typical fear zone), and the Altcoin Season Index is 35 (neutral, slightly below last week).

Observations show that after the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on December 11, the market reaction was generally subdued except for gold. This is not due to a single reason but because the market had already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut before the meeting. After the good news was fully discounted, profit-taking ensued. Additionally, Powell’s hawkish remarks and macro uncertainties have put pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Next week, cryptocurrencies are expected to remain within a range with sideways movements.

BTC Core Range: $86,000 - $94,200

ETH Core Range: $3,100 - $3,400

SOL Core Range: $125 - $145

For short-term traders: It is advised not to chase highs near key resistance levels (such as BTC $94,200, ETH $3,400, SOL $140). Wait for a clear breakout or a pullback at resistance. Consider trying small positions near key support levels (such as BTC $86,000, ETH $3,190, SOL $125). Always set narrow stop-losses.

For medium-term swing traders: Reduce trading frequency and patiently wait for the price to break out of the current “December opening range.” Consider adopting a “gradual accumulation” approach, i.e., building small positions in strong support zones (such as SOL’s $120-$130). Use a significant support breach as a stop-loss or a signal to stay on the sidelines. Keep a close eye on whether US ETF capital flows can continue, as this will be an important indicator of market sentiment.

Stay Informed

Weekly Major Events

1. December 7, Crypto investment firm Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang posted on social media: “I don’t know who needs to hear this, but this is the ‘Netscape moment’ or ‘iPhone moment’ for cryptocurrencies. Its scale is unprecedented, even larger than we could have imagined, both at the institutional level and among cypherpunks, and development is accelerating.”

2. December 10, the CLARITY bill is expected to release a draft this week, with hearings and voting scheduled for next week.

3. December 10, Bloomberg reports that SpaceX plans an IPO in mid-to-late 2026, with a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion. The fundraising will exceed $30 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO ever. Specific timing depends on market conditions.

4. December 9, as the year-end approaches, Wall Street banks are preparing to cope with rising pressure in the money markets. Analysts say this may prompt the Fed to consider measures to rebuild liquidity buffers in this $12.6 trillion market.

5. December 10, according to Decrypt, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated at the Blockchain Association’s annual policy summit that various types of ICOs should be considered non-securities transactions and thus fall outside SEC regulation.

6. December 12, the Southern District of New York Federal Court announced that Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison for fraud related to the Terra and Luna token collapse.

Macroeconomics

1. December 11, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, in line with market expectations. The total rate reduction for the year is 75 basis points.

2. December 11, the initial unemployment claims for the week ending December 6 were 236,000, the highest since the week of September 6, 2025. This exceeded expectations of 220,000, with the previous week’s figure at 191,000.

3. December 12, according to the Fed Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 24.8%.

ETF

Statistics show that from December 8 to December 12, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $286 million; as of December 12, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.039 billion, currently holding $15.061 billion; IBIT (BlackRock) holds $70.093 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $120 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs had net inflows of $209 million.

Future Outlook

Project Developments

1. Yala announced that all native BTC under institutional mode will be withdrawn from the Yala protocol. A complete redemption plan and timetable will be published on December 15.

2. The second season airdrop claim window for deBridge will close on December 19.

3. PayPal is launching a Bitcoin lottery event for US users, with the deadline on December 21.

Major Events

1. December 16, 21:30 EST, the US will release November non-farm payrolls ( thousands ).

2. December 18, 20:00 GMT, the UK will announce the Bank of England interest rate decision for December 18.

3. December 18, 21:15 CET, the Eurozone will announce the European Central Bank deposit facility rate as of December 18.

4. December 18, 21:30 EST, the US will release November unadjusted CPI year-over-year and initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 ( thousands ).

5. December 19, 23:00 EST, US November Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year.

Token Unlocks

1. Connex (CONX) will unlock 1.32 million tokens on December 15, worth approximately $21.35 million, accounting for 1.61% of circulating supply.

2. StarkNet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on December 15, worth about $14.15 million, representing 5.07% of circulating supply.

3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on December 16, valued at approximately $18.98 million, or 1.9% of circulating supply.

4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on December 17, worth about $5.64 million, accounting for 3.26% of circulating supply.

5. Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens on December 18, valued at approximately $2.93 million, representing 4.79% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. Through Weekly Insights and In-depth Reports, we analyze market trends for you; with our exclusive column Hot Coins Selection (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also conduct live sessions to interpret hot topics and forecast trends face-to-face. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize Web3’s value opportunities.