December 15, 2025 Bitcoin Investment Analysis Report

1. Trend Nature Judgment: Technical rebound within a downtrend

Based on comprehensive analysis of technical indicators, fundamental factors, capital flows, and market sentiment, we judge that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase within a downtrend, rather than the start of a new upward cycle.

From a technical perspective, although Bitcoin rebounded from 80,500 to form a "higher low" structure, this is more of a technical rebound within a downtrend rather than a trend reversal signal. Multiple failed attempts to break through the key resistance at 94,000, RSI failing to effectively break above the midline of 50, and MACD divergence across multiple timeframes all indicate insufficient upward momentum. Although the falling wedge pattern is theoretically bullish, trend reversal cannot be confirmed until a breakout is completed.

Fundamentally, hawkish rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations create dual pressure. The Federal Reserve's suggestion of only one rate cut in 2026 weakens the expectation of easing liquidity. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19 is as high as 91.4%. Historical data shows that after rate hikes, Bitcoin usually declines by 23%–31%. This tightening macro environment fundamentally constrains Bitcoin's long-term upward potential.

Regarding capital flows, institutional investor attitudes are clearly divergent. Continuous outflows from BlackRock's IBIT reflect cautiousness among some institutions, while inflows into Fidelity's FBTC indicate long-term optimism from others. Overall, capital flows show a characteristic of "short-term outflows and long-term accumulation," but short-term outflows exert greater pressure.

From market sentiment, extreme panic may signal that the bottom is near, but it does not mean an immediate rebound. The panic and greed index has fallen to a historic low of 16-21. Futures market leverage is accelerating withdrawal, miners face survival crises, and social media sentiment is extremely pessimistic. These factors indicate the market is still digesting negative news, and short-term reversal is unlikely.

2. Key Price Level Forecast:
Target range of 70,000–76,510

Based on technical analysis and fundamental factors, we forecast that Bitcoin will continue to decline in the short term, with the target price range of 70,000–76,510.

First target: 86,000–86,300. This is the rebound high point after the significant decline in early December and an important Fibonacci retracement level. If Bitcoin breaks below the current support at $90,000, the next target is in this zone.

Second target: 80,400–80,550. This is the November low and the current critical defense line. A break below this level would risk creating a new low for Bitcoin.

Final target: 70,000–76,510. 70,000 is an extreme target under the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations, while 76,510 is an important support level in technical analysis. This zone could be the final target of this round of decline.

From a timing perspective, the decline may accelerate around the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19. If the Bank of Japan indeed hikes rates, it could trigger panic selling and accelerate the price drop. Even if the BOJ unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged, considering other negative factors' accumulation, Bitcoin is unlikely to see a substantial rebound.

3. Investment Advice: Cautious wait-and-see, look for clear signals

Given the current market environment, we advise investors to remain cautious and avoid rushing to buy the dip.

Firstly, closely monitor the results of the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19. If they hike rates, it could trigger accelerated declines in Bitcoin, and it might be prudent to gradually build positions in the 70,000–76,510 range. If the BOJ unexpectedly maintains rates, observe market reactions without chasing the rally immediately.

Secondly, watch for technical breakout signals. Bitcoin needs to effectively break through the resistance zone of 94,000–95,000 and sustain above $97,100 to confirm a trend reversal. Until then, any rebound may simply be a technical correction within the downtrend.

Thirdly, monitor institutional capital flows. If major institutions like BlackRock start buying again or if Bitcoin ETFs experience sustained large inflows, these could be signs of market bottoming.

Lastly, manage positions carefully and set stop-loss orders. Even if intending to buy the dip, implement a phased approach and set clear stop-loss levels. It is recommended to place stop-loss orders below $70,000 to control potential losses.

From a long-term perspective, we remain optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. Its status as digital gold remains unchanged, and its decentralization and anti-inflation features are especially valuable amid increasing global economic uncertainty. However, short-term adjustments could be very painful, and investors should have sufficient patience and risk tolerance.