How come the opening weekend prediction markets for "Avatar: Fire and Ash" on Polymarket are trading at such modest levels?

Let's look at the comparable box office data. Avatar 2 pulled in around $134.1M for its domestic opening weekend. Wicked 2 landed in the $147-150M range. So the benchmarks are there.

On the bull side, there's the Christmas weekend factor—holiday periods traditionally see elevated ticket sales and broader audience engagement. That should theoretically support higher volume on the prediction markets.

Yet the trading activity remains surprisingly subdued. The disconnect between historical precedent and current market positioning raises questions about what's driving (or not driving) trader participation in these outcome-dependent contracts. Whether it's sentiment hesitation, liquidity constraints, or simply cautious positioning ahead of actual release data remains an interesting case study in how prediction markets price uncertainty.