Tonight's non-farm payroll data will be released, and the crypto market may face a wave of intense volatility.

The background is as follows—after the US government shutdown lasted 43 days, this first set of real employment data is particularly critical. It directly reflects the economic condition and is an important reference for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

The latest warning from the Federal Reserve is clear: the unemployment rate could rise to 4.5%, job growth may stagnate, and it will become harder for young people to find jobs. Structural labor shortages combined with tightening immigration policies mean that the employment market will face significant pressure in the short term.

For the crypto market, this points to a core issue—interest rate cuts.

If the data shows weakness, the market will reinforce bets on easing policies. USD liquidity will flow into crypto assets, and Bitcoin is likely to reenact its previous single-day surge of 8%. But if the data is strong, the expectation of rate cuts will be disappointed, and a stronger dollar could trigger a correction, even risking liquidations. Historically, scenarios where 400,000 traders get liquidated have occurred before.

The market is now at a crossroads. On one side is Powell's warning about employment risks; on the other is the market’s desire for liquidity. Tonight's data will either become the fuse that ignites the year-end rally or pour cold water on overheated sentiment.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are all waiting for this moment. Do you think the data will be strong or weak? The market will soon give the answer.