The ongoing repercussions of the government shutdown are still unfolding, and the November non-farm payroll report is finally about to be released. This time, the data is a bit special — it includes employment information from October. Although not entirely complete, the market has been holding its breath in anticipation.

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a big move: cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in one go, while also removing the description of the unemployment rate as "relatively low." Powell was even more candid at the press conference, stating that there are significant downside risks to the labor market. These signals, stacked together, have led the market to ponder how long the US employment situation can hold up.

But here’s a twist. Powell then said that the policy rate is increasingly approaching a neutral level, and that the "risk management" rate cuts might be coming to an end — unless something unexpected happens later. The implication is clear: there is limited room for rate cuts, and future moves will depend on the data.