Ethereum (ETH) Technical Outlook: Buyers Defend Demand, But Bears Still Control Trend

Ethereum remains under overall bearish pressure after failing to sustain above the $4,450–$4,950 supply zone, where price faced repeated rejection near the 0.786 Fibonacci and prior highs. This rejection marked a clear trend shift and initiated a prolonged corrective phase.
The downside move accelerated once ETH lost the $4,065–$3,900 region (0.618–0.5 Fib), confirming a structural breakdown and pushing price back into a lower demand range.
EMA Structure (Bearish Bias)
ETH is currently trading below all major EMAs, with downward-sloping averages acting as strong dynamic resistance:
20 EMA – $3,102
50 EMA – $3,274
100 EMA – $3,472
200 EMA – $3,438
This EMA compression overhead suggests limited upside unless ETH can reclaim the $3,275–$3,450 zone decisively.
Price is now consolidating inside a major demand zone between $2,950–$3,050, which aligns closely with the 0.236 Fib level ($3,173) being repeatedly tested. This zone has so far absorbed selling pressure, indicating short-term stabilization.
For bullish continuation, ETH must first reclaim $3,173 (0.236 Fib) and then break above $3,514 (0.382 Fib). A stronger recovery would require acceptance above $3,790–$3,900 (0.5 Fib), where previous support turned into resistance.
On the downside, a clear breakdown below $2,950 would expose ETH to deeper demand around $2,620 (Fib 0), which is the next major downside support visible on the chart.
RSI is currently near 42, suggesting weak momentum, but also signaling that ETH is not overextended to the downside — consistent with a consolidation phase rather than aggressive selling.
📊 Key Levels
Resistance
$3,102 (20 EMA)
$3,274 (50 EMA)
$3,472–$3,438 (100 & 200 EMA)
$3,173 (0.236 Fib)
$3,514 (0.382 Fib)
$3,790–$3,900 (0.5 Fib)
$4,065 (0.618 Fib)
Support
$3,050–$2,950 (major demand zone)
$2,623 (Fib 0)
$2,402 (extended downside support)
RSI
42.33 — neutral to bearish, stabilizing
📌 Summary
ETH is holding a critical demand zone after a sharp correction, but the broader trend remains bearish while price stays below the $3,275–$3,500 resistance cluster. A short-term relief bounce is possible; however, a trend reversal would require strong acceptance above $3,800+. Loss of $2,950 would open the door for a deeper retracement toward $2,620.
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