Non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and the market's risk aversion sentiment is clearly intensifying. Bitcoin has already fallen below the $86,000 psychological level, reflecting investors' pricing adjustments to macro uncertainties.

What is the outlook? It depends on the data's face. If the employment data shows weakness, expectations of a rate cut by the central bank will be reinforced, and both the US dollar and US Treasury yields may decline, giving Bitcoin a chance to rebound. Conversely, if the data meets or exceeds expectations, the dollar is likely to strengthen, and Bitcoin will face pressure, possibly continuing to fluctuate or even decline further.

Currently, this is a typical data-driven market, where volatility can be amplified. It is very important to pay attention to the direction choice 1 to 2 hours after the data release—the window often determines the short-term trend.