2025-12-16 08:21:27

Thoughts on Bitcoin and the Crypto Market:

1. The hype around halving cycles is declining. From market performance, the influence of the traditional 4-year cycle on Bitcoin has significantly weakened. It's better to understand it this way: when prices reach the extreme, a correction is inevitable; when they bottom out, a natural rebound occurs — this is the constant market law.

2. The core driving logic is increasingly similar to that of the US stock market. The US stock market's approach involves repeated fluctuations and bubble squeezing; the crypto circle has evolved into repeated volatility and de-leveraging. Their underlying mechanisms are converging.

3. After Bitcoin received national-level certification in the US, the situation has changed. The kind of straight-line bear market of 70-80% in history? Unless there is a major change in fundamentals (such as a sudden policy resistance from relevant US authorities), the probability is very low. However, compared to the 2022 one-way decline bear market, what may appear in the future is a torturous oscillating bear — repeatedly giving hope, repeatedly disappointing, ultimately leaving everyone numb.

4. The dimension of capital game cannot be ignored. The struggle between opposing forces over this high-quality asset directly influences market trends.

5. The differentiation among altcoins is becoming more obvious. On one hand, manipulation chaos in the crypto space leads to each playing their own game during bear markets, making consensus difficult; on the other hand, numerous substandard projects create inflationary pressure, and the overall devaluation trend is hard to reverse. The market no longer has a unified driving force; everyone is doing their own thing.

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SlowLearnerWang

· 2025-12-19 07:59

Annoying oscillating bear market, it just sounds uncomfortable, feeling repeatedly exploited like being sheared sheep.

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SwapWhisperer

· 2025-12-16 08:26

The narrative about the halving cycle indeed needs an update. Right now, it's a game of tug-of-war between institutions and retail investors. --- The exhausting volatile bear market makes my scalp tingle; the straightforward drop in 2022 was actually less torturous. --- Those altcoins should have been cleared out long ago. We are now in an era where funds are consolidating around BTC. --- After national-level certification, Bitcoin's nature truly changed; it can never go back to the days of wild growth. --- The struggle between the two sides' capital over Bitcoin is far more important than any fundamentals. --- I agree with the view that the underlying mechanisms are converging; the crypto world is being domesticated. --- The most frustrating thing about the volatile bear market is that even when numb, you still have to endure it, which can really wear people out. --- The chaos in altcoins boils down to unprincipled profit-taking; it was long overdue for regulation. --- The decline in enthusiasm during the halving cycle actually reflects the market's increasing maturity.

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