2025-12-16 09:21:20

Tonight, the November unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data will be released. Given the flawed base in October and the significant sample volatility in November, the market is actually expecting a "just right" result: an unemployment rate slightly above the expected 4.4%, and new jobs added less than the expected 50,000. Such moderate soft data best balances all parties.

The reality is, if the data exceeds expectations, it will weaken the anticipation of a rate cut in 2026, causing market cheers but putting pressure on assets; if the data weakens significantly, it could easily trigger recession fears, plunging into another extreme. The Federal Reserve has been swinging back and forth in this dilemma throughout 2025, with decision-making space severely compressed.

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ETH_Maxi_Taxi

· 8h ago

The Federal Reserve has had a tough year, with all the data acting up Just hoping for a "just right" result, haha, but what’s the outcome Expectations of rate cuts are wavering on one side, while on the other side, there's fear of a recession. Truly a dilemma The moment the non-farm payrolls are released, there will probably be a flurry of chaos Honestly, this kind of situation might actually be a positive for the crypto space, at least it offers some imagination The Fed is under immense pressure, so I’ll just watch the show quietly When the data comes out, it will be another game of betting. Anyway, I only watch BTC

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GasWhisperer

· 12-16 09:51

nah the fed's basically trapped in a mempool of its own making... goldilocks data is cope, tbh. either way someone's gonna get liquidated lol

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OPsychology

· 12-16 09:49

The Federal Reserve is really having a tough time these days. They want everything to be "just right," but which time has the market ever given them that favor?

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RooftopVIP

· 12-16 09:32

Basically, the Fed is being roasted over the fire, and no data feels right. --- It's the same old story, waiting for the data to be either too strong or too weak, with no way out in between. --- The Federal Reserve has now truly become Schrödinger's central bank; investors can just pick whichever state of despair they prefer. --- Mild and soft? Ha, that term sounds exhausting just to hear. --- In 2025, the Federal Reserve will be playing a game on hell difficulty. I'll just watch and see what happens. --- A good hand of cards has been torn apart; who's to blame?

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SolidityJester

· 12-16 09:31

The Federal Reserve is really caught in a dilemma. If they want to cut interest rates, the data isn't supportive; if they don't, the market will be restless.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 12-16 09:26

The Fed's move is really awkward, catching both sides criticism. Basically, they just want that "lukewarm water," but there's a high chance of a failure. It's another data betting game, and I'm betting on weak data. Powell must be exhausted this year, caught in a dilemma. Non-farm payrolls are causing anxiety again; still optimistic about the weakening rate cut expectations. The market wants a reassurance, but the Federal Reserve simply can't provide it, and we're stuck like this until 2025. It's like dancing on the edge of a cliff. No matter how this data turns out, it doesn't seem to satisfy anyone; a breakthrough is inevitable.

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