The historic moment has arrived! Tonight at 9:30 PM, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the October and November non-farm employment reports simultaneously, which is already quite explosive. Even more astonishing is that the October data is a "partial report"—only the number of employed people, with the unemployment rate missing entirely. This is the first time since 1948.

What caused this? It’s the previous U.S. government shutdown, which disrupted data collection. So tonight's focus isn't just on the numbers themselves, but more importantly, whether the market can glean the Federal Reserve's true assessment of the employment market, especially signals of "downside risks."

What is the market betting on now? All eyes are on the November data. According to market expectations, new jobs are around 40,000, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.4%. But keep in mind, the previous annual data has already been revised downward by 911,000 jobs. What does this imply? The market was already more pessimistic than the official figures. If tonight's numbers disappoint again, it will confirm fears of a cooling employment market. The Fed's rate cut expectations for next year will skyrocket, the dollar will face pressure, and a wave of bullish momentum for cryptocurrencies could follow.

As for the "tampered" October data, the key point is whether there will be negative growth. Any unexpected negative figures will further dampen market sentiment.

In simple terms, although the data tonight will definitely be chaotic, this is the best window to understand the Fed's policy intentions for next year. Weak data → increased rate cut expectations → benefits for risk assets; strong data → expectations will be readjusted. Market volatility might be significant, so be prepared.