On Tuesday, Asian trading saw gold prices drop sharply, briefly losing the $4300 level. Currently, gold is fluctuating around $4285, down 0.5%.

The root cause is simple: futures traders are taking profits, and weak bullish positions are also closing out and selling off. Plus, positive signals from Ukraine peace negotiations have led to a flow of risk-averse funds out of the market, causing demand for gold to cool.

However, bears shouldn't celebrate prematurely. The Federal Reserve's third rate cut of the year has already been implemented, and more importantly, signals of continued rate cuts into 2026 have been released—this directly lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and provides strong support for gold prices. But the easing of geopolitical risks is also weighing on this support, making it somewhat difficult for gold to rally.

The real test is tonight. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report, retail sales data, and PMI indicators will be released in quick succession—these are key indicators for the Fed's upcoming rate decisions. If employment data is weak, market expectations for rate cuts will intensify, likely causing gold to surge; conversely, if data is strong, gold may continue to be sold off.

From a technical perspective, the overall trend remains bullish. Prices are well above the 100-day moving average, the four-hour K-line Bollinger bands are opening up, and the RSI is in the mid to strong zone, indicating short-term upward momentum is building.

Resistance above is at $4350; if broken, the next targets are the historical highs at $4365 and $4381. Support below is at $4285; if broken, attention should turn to $4257, and further down is the critical line at the 100-day moving average of $4210.

Currently, gold is experiencing increased volatility with a long-term positive outlook. Tonight's non-farm data is like the steering wheel of the market—its direction depends on the figures. Interested traders are welcome to discuss real-time strategies to seize precise entry points.