After trading for so long, I’ve always been skeptical about the so-called "Four-Year Cycle Theory." It wasn’t until recently, when Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to below 94,000, and altcoins were halved one after another, that I truly understood a saying: Bull and bear markets are not spoken into existence; they are driven by price declines.

I remember last month, when Bitcoin was consolidating around 110,000, how many small coins multiplied five or ten times in a single day? That craziness was exactly the same as at the peak in 2021. At that time, I warned about risks in the group, only to be mocked as the "short seller leader." And now? Hundreds of billions of dollars in leveraged positions are being forcibly liquidated, and the annual gains have been wiped out in just a few days. This is not an accident; it’s a script written by the market.

What’s even more painful is the timing. This year marks the 18th month after the halving. Looking back at historical K-line charts, this cycle is usually a sensitive period from a bull to a bear. Currently, Bitcoin can barely sustain itself on institutional ETF inflows, but there are no takers for altcoins—any dip triggers a stampede.

The technical analysis is even clearer. The moving average system has been completely broken, and the 72,000 level has become the last psychological defense line. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s continued hawkish signals, market liquidity is constantly shrinking. Those hoping for a "Christmas rebound" at the end of the year, honestly, are unlikely to see it.

My judgment is that the next phase will likely see repeated oscillations between 80,000 and 90,000. If 80,000 cannot hold, a bear market might really be on the horizon. But don’t be overly pessimistic—ETFs are still experiencing continuous net inflows every day, and big institutions have already started to lay low.

In the end, market ups and downs are fundamentally a game of mindset. Don’t obsess every day about whether it’s a bull or bear market. History tells us that the best opportunities often appear in despair, and the greatest risks are hidden in madness. Stockpile your ammunition and keep your mindset steady. The truly worthwhile opportunities to get in are always created by dips.