Every time the Federal Reserve releases data, the crypto market experiences intense volatility. On the surface, it seems data-driven, but the actual operational logic is far more complex than you think.

Institutions and large players never make decisions based on news. They have the advantage at the top of the information chain, and they have already grasped the outline of the facts before the data is announced. And those expectations? They are just references for retail traders following the trend. True profits come from the gap between expectations and reality—that's what is called expectation gap trading.

Retail traders are trapped in the trap of information asymmetry. While you're pondering whether the unemployment rate will rise by 0.1%, institutions have already pre-judged the market reaction chain through algorithms. When the data is released, extreme volatility is often a carefully orchestrated wipeout of retail traders—your stop-loss orders become opportunities for others to profit.

Particularly beware of the average hourly earnings indicator. It directly influences the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate hikes. If hourly earnings grow faster than expected, the expectation of rate hikes intensifies, and global liquidity will tighten further. As risk assets, cryptocurrencies will be among the first to face capital withdrawal.

So how should retail traders respond? Three key points to remember:

**First, abandon the psychology of betting on data.** You are always at the end of the information chain, using guesses to counter others' certainty, and this calculation is beyond your reach.

**Second, understand early signals.** If the market has already surged significantly before the data is released, regardless of the final data, this may be an early reaction signal, and you should be alert to the risk of a reverse correction.

**Third, calm positioning is more important than chasing the top.** Market opportunities are everywhere; the key is not to be driven by volatile emotions, but to continuously observe on-chain capital flows and identify genuine entry points.

Instead of guessing what will happen next, improve your risk awareness and market intuition. Only then can you survive longer in a data-driven market.