Long-term holders of BTC have been very active recently. Distribution has noticeably increased, and selling pressure has followed. However, based on the data, although this wave of selling is more intense than in November, it still hasn't reached the scale of the two bottoming phases in August 2024 or April 2025—The problem is, this pace feels a bit delicate. On the surface, it looks like normal profit-taking, but in reality, it seems more like a temporary price stabilization being exploited for an exit.

But there are also bright spots in the market. The FBS curve is gradually recovering, and new capital inflows are steadily returning. However, don’t expect a V-shaped reversal too much—this curve’s upward process has always been challenging, as mentioned earlier. Probabilistically, BTC is likely to fluctuate sideways in the near term, and a second bottom is even possible.

The current situation actually aligns with expectations. Long-term holders increasing their distribution when prices are stable or not falling sharply just confirms previous judgments. The key is whether the FBS curve can continue to recover—if it does, the overall trend remains intact. It’s just necessary to withstand repeated shakeouts during the process and not be shaken out by short-term volatility.

The performance of SOL and ASTER also warrants attention, as they often reflect changes in market risk appetite.

Thanks for reading this far, and I wish everyone successful trading!