Overall crypto market read (today’s macro)

Overalls a broadly risk-off (most majors -4% to -10%+), which matches a classic “deleveraging + support breaks” day: longs get forced out, bids step back, and alts bleed harder than BTC.

What’s driving it today:

Leverage unwind is the main fuel: latest data shows roughly $468M liquidated in 24h with ~$385M longs (very one-sided), which amplifies selling into every small drop.

Macro jitter is real: markets are on edge around U.S. employment data timing/quality (some releases delayed/gappy) which keeps risk assets jumpy.

BoJ risk is a genuine “risk-off switch”: Japan’s Tankan supports expectations of a BoJ hike at the Dec 18–19 meeting (often tied to “carry trade” positioning), which can pressure BTC and alts when traders reduce risk.

Under the hood isn’t all bearish: institutional “rails” keep building (example: JPM launching a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, opening Dec 16). That supports the longer roadmap narrative (RWA/tokenization), even if price is dumping short-term.

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Technical picture (how to interpret today)

Market structure

BTC leads direction; alts amplify it. When BTC loses a key level, alts usually drop 1.5–3× the BTC move (your list shows that).

Today looks like “breakdown → liquidation cascade → attempt to base.” Until BTC stabilizes, most alt bounces are counter-trend and get sold quickly.

BTC / ETH “decision zones” (practical)

BTC: headlines show BTC trading around ~$86–87k and having lost $90k as a psychological/technical level.

Bullish sign: reclaim + hold above $90k (daily close helps) → risk-on returns.

Bearish sign: fail to reclaim $90k → rallies become short setups / profit-taking spots.

ETH: ETH tagging ~$3,000 “critical support.”

Bullish sign: hold $3k and reclaim broken local resistances.

Bearish sign: lose $3k cleanly → alts usually get hit harder (beta effect).

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What to do now (actionable plan)

1) Spot strategy (best for days like today)

Goal: survive volatility and accumulate “roadmap winners” without getting chopped.

A. Don’t buy all at once — ladder it

Split each intended buy into 3–5 limit orders (example: 25% / 25% / 20% / 15% / 15%).

Place them below current price at obvious demand areas (prior swing lows / big round numbers / where the last impulse started).

Keep a “last buy” deeper to catch liquidation wicks.

B. Prioritize roadmap narratives that still attract real demand Based on what’s on your screenshots/watchlist:

RWA / TradFi onchain: ONDO, CFG (but treat as high volatility; buy in tranches).

Oracles / infra: LINK (usually survives drawdowns better than smaller caps).

AI / compute: RENDER, AKT (high beta—great upside, but expect big swings).

L2 / scaling ecosystem: STRK (again, volatile; scale in).

High-beta L1s: SOL, SUI, APT, NEAR (strong narratives, but they bleed fast during risk-off).

C. Rotation tell (when to get aggressive) You want to see:

BTC stabilizing + ETH holding support and

“leaders” (SOL/LINK) start making higher lows while laggards stop making new lows.

If that doesn’t happen, keep it defensive (small adds only).

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2) Futures strategy (only if you want to trade the volatility)

Today’s conditions are not friendly to big leverage because liquidation cascades are already happening.

The 2 highest-probability setups today/tonight

Setup 1: Breakdown retest short (safer in risk-off)

Wait for BTC (or your chosen coin) to bounce back into the level it broke (e.g., BTC ~$90k area).

Enter short only if it rejects (clear wick + lower high).

Stops: just above the reclaimed level.

Take profit in steps (TP1 quick, TP2 at prior low, TP3 at liquidation wick zones).

Setup 2: Reclaim long (you must be strict)

Only long if BTC reclaims and holds key level (again: ~$90k area matters a lot).

Confirmation: 15m/1h closes above + retest holds.

Stops: below the retest low.

Take profit quickly because bounces in risk-off can be sharp but short-lived.

Futures risk controls (non-negotiable today)

Use 1–3× leverage (max 5× if you’re extremely disciplined).

Risk per trade: 0.5%–1% of account.

If you lose 2 trades, stop. Today’s tape can get “mean.”

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3) Sentiment & positioning checklist (what to watch next)

BoJ meeting (Dec 18–19): rate-hike expectations can keep markets cautious until it’s resolved.

U.S. jobs/CPI timing and reliability: delays + uncertainty = choppy risk.

ETF/flows: even if price is weak, steady inflows can set up a later rebound (and XRP-related ETF demand has been a notable narrative recently).

#MacroPressure
#AreWeAtTheBottomYet
#DeleveragingTheStorm