Will Bitcoin break the four-year cycle? The logic behind hitting a new all-time high in 2026 is here

Question

【Crypto World】An institutional analyst recently shared an interesting view: Bitcoin might break its own four-year cycle pattern. According to his prediction, Bitcoin could hit a new high in 2026.

What is the logic supporting this judgment? Mainly a few aspects:

First, the impact of the halving is weakening. Previously, halving was a bombshell event; now the market has already digested this expectation.

Second, interest rates might loosen. Once the expectation of rate cuts is established, liquidity easing is naturally friendly to assets like Bitcoin.

Third, we see large financial institutions like Morgan Stanley accelerating their布局. Institutional funds entering the market change the game rules.

There’s also an interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin’s volatility may gradually narrow, and its correlation with stocks is also decreasing. Once Bitcoin becomes a “high return, low volatility, low correlation” trio, it will be very attractive for asset allocation. At that time, its appeal will be completely different.

consensus_whisperer · Accepted Answer

Starting to talk about the four-year cycle breaking again? That's funny. Can institutional entry really change the fate? I think the real key is interest rate cuts; everything else is just superficial.

GasGuzzler · Answer

The halving effect has long been priced in, I agree with that statement. But reaching a new high in 2026? It still depends on the Federal Reserve's stance.

Institutional panic buying has indeed changed the game; Morgan Stanley and these guys wouldn't enter the market without reason.

It's crazy how volatility has narrowed—when has BTC ever experienced low volatility?

If it truly becomes high returns with low volatility, would it still be called Bitcoin, brother?

PanicSeller · Answer

Is the halving impact weakening? Wake up, brother, that's what the whales are saying.

It's the same old tune that Morgan Stanley can pump the market just by entering, smelling like a common leek harvesting scheme.

Breaking new highs in 2026? I doubt it. Let's see if we can survive this year first.

Low volatility and high returns—where in the world is there such a good thing? It's just another pie in the sky.

The four-year cycle is gone again. Next, are they going to say Bitcoin will rise to one million dollars? Haha

GateUser-3824aa38 · Answer

The halving isn't as intense anymore, I approve. But can institutional entry really change the pattern? Alright, anyway, I've already become the leek.

LiquidationWatcher · Answer

nah man, institutions flooding in sounds nice but remember 2022? when everyone said "this time is different"... yeah. watch your health factors fr fr, margin calls don't care about morgan stanley hype