Looking back, this situation feels familiar. The OECD forecasts that the Federal Reserve will gradually cut interest rates to between 3.25% and 3.5%, which reminds me of the days after the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, under economic pressure, the Federal Reserve had to adopt an easing policy.

Now it seems that history always repeats itself in new ways. CME data shows an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, indicating market expectations for rate cuts are so strong. This makes me think of the scenario after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, when expectations for rate cuts were also high.

However, we should also be cautious of the risks mentioned by the OECD. Raising tariffs could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, and US fiscal policy may become unsustainable. This reminds me of the trade protectionism during the Great Depression in the 1930s, a painful chapter in history.

Interestingly, the report also mentions that the AI investment boom could bring upside potential for economic growth. This brings to mind the optimism during the rise of the internet in the 1990s. New technologies can indeed create opportunities, but we must also stay rational and avoid repeating the bubble burst.

Overall, the current situation is complex and volatile. We need to learn from history, remain open to new opportunities, and be vigilant about potential risks. After all, understanding history helps us better grasp the present and look forward to the future.