Bitcoin is currently battling around the $100,000 mark, but the pressure is mounting — the Bank of Japan(BOJ)'s interest rate hike decision is hanging overhead.

This is nothing new. Looking back at history: every time Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin tends to fall. In the March 2024 rate hike, BTC dropped by 23%. Another hike in July saw a decline of 26%. Currently, the market widely expects Bitcoin to retrace to around $70,000, a drop of about 28%.

December 19th is a key date. At the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, a 25 basis point rate hike is expected. The probability given by prediction platforms is as high as 98%. Some analysts are more pessimistic, believing the rate hike could reach 75 basis points.

Why is Japan's decision so important? Because Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making it the largest foreign creditor. Once interest rates are adjusted, global capital flows, bond yields, stock markets, and crypto assets — all will be affected. This is not an isolated event but a ripple effect across the global financial chain.

So in the next two weeks, paying close attention to the Bank of Japan's moves is very necessary.