The analysis in the square varies widely. Some say it will bounce between 2850 and 3800 before falling again, while others are concerned about whether 2870 can hold. But all of these are just guesses. Instead of blindly analyzing, it's better to look back at the chart—by examining the BTC daily MACD pattern, the double top structure in Nasdaq, and the daily death cross, combined with recent market rhythm, you can see the clues.

Ultimately, what determines the next trend comes down to one thing: liquidity. Without capital inflow, no matter how beautiful the rebound structure is, it can't change the downward trend. Currently, BTC's lifeline is at the EMA100 line around 86,000. This defense line will eventually be broken. I generally don't consider going long above 80,000, and can only hope for a possible rebound around 75,000—honestly, I'm a bit worried even at that level.

The signal for a bull market returning is actually very simple. Using EMA and the 20-day moving average to judge is enough; there's no need to make it so complicated.