Ladies and gentlemen, at 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the November non-farm payroll report in the US will be released. This is not a routine data release, but a "supplementary report" after the government shutdown—covering the figures for both October and November in one go. I'll just get straight to the point: if the data doesn't look particularly impressive, don't immediately react by dumping. Instead, it might actually be an opportunity for a rebound in the crypto market; if the data exceeds expectations, then be cautious of a situation where good news has already been priced in.

Why do I say this? Let me break it down.

**The data itself has "issues"**

The October figures are likely to show negative growth. The market estimates a decrease of about 10,000 to 60,000 jobs. But don’t be scared by the numbers—this isn’t true deterioration in employment. The federal government’s "delayed resignations" that started earlier this year have recently surged. In October alone, federal agencies laid off about 125,000 employees. If we strip out this part, private sector job growth might actually be around 65,000.

And what about November? The market expects an increase of 50,000 jobs. But there’s a detail that Powell has long clarified—the official monthly data might be overstated by about 60,000. In other words, the real employment situation might already be in negative territory. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% to between 4.5% and 4.6%, but there’s a catch—during the shutdown, many federal employees were classified as unpaid leave, and the chaotic statistical methods have already muddied the data.

**How does the crypto market view this?**

The market is actually well aware of this. Even if the data tonight is weaker than expected, as long as there’s no catastrophic crash, it will instead reinforce the expectation that "the Federal Reserve must continue to cut rates." And that’s the real key concern for the crypto world. Weak employment data + rate cut expectations are precisely the accelerators for the market rally.