#美联储降息 Bitcoin's four-year cycle has been discussed extensively, but the underlying logic is definitely worth examining.

The key factor remains the halving—reducing supply—combined with external capital inflows (tech bubbles, liquidity waves, big institutions jumping in), which causes demand to explode. How many times has this happened in history? In 2013, driven by the community, but Mt.Gox collapsed, and the market fell apart. In 2017, during the ICO boom, fundraising frenzy, but regulatory crackdown hit hard, and the hype vanished instantly. 2021 was different—pandemic liquidity injections + Wall Street entering the market created that wave, but later, tightening inflation crushed it.

Now, by 2025, the situation has completely changed. After the emergence of ETFs, institutional players have taken over entirely. Even before the halving, $BTC started hitting new highs, but retail investors, who were most excited, remained silent—just looking at the charts, you could tell something was off about this rally.

Has the cycle disappeared? No. It has simply evolved from retail chasing gains and panic selling into a pattern of institutional steady allocation. The performance of altcoins like $ETH, $SOL is also changing—no longer a gambler's game, but more like institutions planning a big move.