Tonight at 21:30, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report is about to be released, and this time, it's a bit unusual.

To be honest, the story behind this data is somewhat complicated. The US government shutdown caused a delay, and this time they need to release the data for October and November together. But the problem is—October's unemployment rate is missing entirely, and the statistical error for November might also be larger than usual. Market predictions are highly divided; the median forecast for new jobs in November is only 50,000, but different institutions are saying different things: some predict negative growth, others expect an increase of 130,000, with no consensus in sight. Major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are even clashing, and Fed Chair Powell has openly suggested that the non-farm data might be overestimated.

What's more interesting is that the market's reaction logic has reversed. In the past, "good data = market rally," but now you have to look at it differently—strong employment data indicates the labor market remains resilient, which in turn lowers the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates next year. As a result, US stocks and gold might face downward pressure. Conversely, data showing "moderate softness," while not collapsing, isn't strong enough either, and could actually trigger rate cut expectations, giving risk assets a chance to enjoy a "sweet moment."

Just look at gold—after breaking through the $4,300 high and then pulling back, if tonight's data shows weakness in line with expectations, bulls are likely to re-engage and push toward the $4,350 level.

The market is about to dance, so I suggest everyone stay steady and watch closely—don't let the volatility lead you around by the nose.