#美联储降息 📌 Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the US non-farm employment data will be released.

What does this data mean for the crypto market? To put it simply:

**The number of new non-farm jobs is the decisive factor**

If the data exceeds expectations (≥80,000, more than 60% above forecast), then—expectations of rate cuts will be completely dismissed, and the US dollar will strengthen accordingly. The result? BTC and ETH may directly drop to support levels in the short term, volatility will significantly increase, and slippage could become frightening.

If the data meets market expectations (between 30,000-70,000), the reaction will be more moderate. The market will follow the original plan, liquidity will tighten but extreme volatility will be avoided.

But if the data is weaker than expected (≤20,000, or even negative growth), it’s a different story. Expectations of rate cuts will heat up again, the US dollar will come under pressure, and cryptocurrencies often experience rapid surges. Institutional funds may seize the opportunity to buy mainstream coins.

**2025 has a special background**—this release includes “merged data” for October and November after the US government shutdown. There are many doubts about the authenticity of the data and policy transmission, which could further amplify short-term volatility.

**Pay attention to these details**: the number of new jobs (market expectation around 50,000), the unemployment rate (expected 4.4%), and the growth rate of average hourly wages. These indicators will directly influence the market’s pricing of rate cuts in early 2026, meaning they determine the upcoming capital flow.

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