Beijing Time tonight at 21:30, the US non-farm employment data will be officially released. This report has a significant impact on the upcoming trend of the crypto market.

**Number of new jobs is the key factor**

If the data exceeds expectations by more than 60% (新增≥8万), market optimism about rate cuts will significantly cool down, and the US dollar will strengthen accordingly. In this case, the crypto market is prone to short-term sharp retracements, with BTC and ETH potentially hitting key support levels, and volatility will be noticeably amplified.

Neutral data in line with expectations (within the 30,000-70,000 range) will instead keep the market status quo, with liquidity shrinking but not causing slippage issues.

If the data is weaker than expected, or even shows negative growth (≤2万), it is a positive signal. The space for rate cuts reopens, the US dollar weakens, and crypto assets are likely to rise rapidly, with institutional funds flowing into mainstream coins.

**Special background for 2025**

This release combines data for October and November due to the US government shutdown. The market has some doubts about the authenticity of this "two-in-one" data, and policy transmission effects are uncertain, which may amplify short-term market volatility.

**Key points to watch**

The expected number of new jobs is about 50,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4%. Additionally, the growth trend of average hourly earnings is also crucial. These indicators combined will directly influence the market’s pricing logic for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace in early 2026.