2025-12-16 13:22:36

The U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to release the November non-farm payroll data at 21:30 (UTC+8) on December 16, but this report is a bit unusual. Due to the previous government shutdown, the household employment survey for October was not conducted, leaving the unemployment rate data blank, so the independent non-farm data for October was directly canceled. Instead, the Department combined the business survey data for October with November and released them together.

It may sound like no big deal, but the problem is— the integrity of the non-farm report is compromised. The logical chain behind the unemployment rate and employment population data has been broken, lacking comparative reference. This means the market might over-interpret the data or even generate conflicting signals, leading to increased speculative trading, which could impact Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Institutional investors should also treat this report as an "important but cautious" information source.

Citigroup economists have long warned that this report could easily send confusing signals. They expect a decrease of 45,000 jobs in October, but an increase of 80,000 in November. As for the unemployment rate, it is projected to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%. However, economists surveyed by Reuters generally forecast the unemployment rate to stay at 4.4%, and the Federal Reserve’s own quarterly forecast sets a year-end target of 4.5%. When numbers conflict, markets tend to speculate.

More importantly, the timing. This is the first employment report after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10. Whether the Fed will continue to cut rates in January 2026 has been a topic of speculation, and this data is very likely to be overinterpreted.

According to CME’s "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by another 25 basis points in January 2026 is only 24.4%, while the chance of holding rates steady is as high as 75.6%. In other words, the market is more inclined to believe that the rate-cutting cycle may pause. How this non-farm data will influence market expectations remains to be seen.

BTC-0,01%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

8 Likes

Reward
8
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GasFeeAssassin

· 2025-12-18 12:22

Data conflicts, the crypto world is bound to suffer... Another report that is easily manipulated, gotta watch out. Unemployment rate predictions are all over the place, this is going to be interesting. The rate hike cycle might pause? Then the price of coins is really uncertain. Government shutdown has caused non-farm payroll data to be incomplete, it's ridiculous. This non-farm payroll report is likely to trigger volatility, keep a close eye on your wallet. The probability given by CME is a bit heartbreaking, the signals of a pause in rate hikes are too strong. On the night of the 16th, I guess I'll have to stay up late watching the market, those are stressful days.

View OriginalReply0

LeverageAddict

· 2025-12-16 13:50

Non-farm data clash, BTC is going to suffer. This report is missing limbs and parts, no wonder institutions are all watching. Unemployment rate at 4.4 or 4.52, just a little more and the market would have reversed operations, it's ridiculous. Whether to cut interest rates or not depends entirely on how this data looks. CME's probability is right here, 75% to stay unchanged, I bet once this data is out, it will be a bloodbath. The government shutdown has caused significant damage, the data is all broken. Let's wait and see the fireworks show on the evening of the 16th, the crypto circle should be prepared for a hit. This kind of incomplete signal is the most dangerous, retail investors always find out last. Even Citibank says chaos is easy, what more is there to say... The probability of a rate cut in January is only 24%, so why are some still hyping a rate-cut bull market?

View OriginalReply0

NftBankruptcyClub

· 2025-12-16 13:43

Now it's settled, incomplete data still has to be used for trading, a true information vacuum. The mess caused by the government shutdown, now we have to take over. Even Citibank said it would be chaotic, and some people still dare to go all-in? Really brave. Unemployment rates vary depending on who you ask, how can we make this deal... The probability of interest rate cuts is only 24%, once this data comes out, there might be another wave of turmoil. Wait until the 16th, anyway, the crypto circle right now is just a gambler's mindset.

View OriginalReply0

GamefiGreenie

· 2025-12-16 13:43

Uh, data conflicts are really quite annoying, and there will definitely be another wave of volatility then. The government shutdown has caused significant damage, and the non-farm payrolls are already affected. Citi is right, this report is a landmine, with a rollercoaster rhythm. 75% probability of remaining unchanged? Then the rate cut cycle is really coming to an end. What about BTC? This timing is really perfect, immediately after the rate cut, data bombs are dropped. I've said it before, the more chaotic the macro data, the crazier the market gets. We retail investors can only follow along and mess around. It feels like this week's non-farm payrolls are the real main course; all the previous ones were just appetizers.

View OriginalReply0