#大户持仓变化 Beware! Can Bitcoin hold tonight? Non-farm data becomes the key turning point

The Bitcoin hourly chart has already shown clear break signals. MACD has formed a death cross below the zero line, and the yellow-white lines continue to weaken. This is not a shakeout, but a clear sign of a bearish control.

Now everyone’s main question is the same: where is the bottom? Is there still a chance for a rebound?

To be honest, tonight’s US non-farm employment data is the real stabilizer—related to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate policy:

Good data (strong employment, rising wages) → market worries that the Fed will keep rates high → US dollar appreciates → Bitcoin faces pressure and likely continues to decline; conversely, weak data → investors expect the rate cut window to open → US dollar retreats → risk assets like Ethereum might get a breather; the worst-case scenario is “a bit of both”—bad employment data but wages still rising, indicating persistent inflation → Fed faces a dilemma → market may experience sharp volatility, ultimately still under the long-term suppression of high interest rates.

The technical picture is already very clear. Bears are in control, don’t expect to catch the bottom:
3015 is the first resistance level, 3230 is a stronger resistance, and currently, the rebound can’t even break 3000; looking downwards, 2880 is the first lifeline, 2800 is a psychological barrier, and 2700 is the true target for the bears. Once broken, it could directly target 2660.

The MACD death cross signal is very clear—downtrend. Recklessly buying in is like taking a knife. No one can predict the market’s movement, but risk management is within your control. Don’t go all-in gambling; staying alive steadily is the real win.

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