#大户持仓变化 Let's talk about this question: Are your expectations based on pricing or overextension?

People often say "this coin can multiply several times in the future," but rarely hear the opposite—"this market cycle has already fully priced in the imagination for the next few years." Many small-cap coins have long since overextended their stories.

Market sentiment ratio is not really a valuation tool; frankly, it's everyone's collective imagination. It should never be the problem. The real issue is when someone mistakes temporary phenomena for a permanent business model.

At this stage: no need to make money, no need for a business model, no need to wait for validation. Just one phrase—"what if it succeeds"—is enough. So the price soars first, real implementation comes later. The most ruthless part of this move is— the market never guarantees fulfillment.

No one promises that the technology will definitely succeed, the ecosystem will definitely catch fire, or that tokens will definitely capture value. The only thing the market does is turn your beautiful ideas into cash in advance.

So why do most people lose money? One reason: they misinterpret the "current story" as "permanent logic."

They think that as long as the story is alive, the price won't fall, as long as the narrative persists, it has support, and as long as the ecosystem remains, it’s worth this money. But the market's usual answer is: I’ve heard the story, I’ve given the money.

The most deceptive thing is often not the project itself, but time. It makes people think they can wait a little longer, wait for the next version, wait for the next cycle. But in reality? Time erodes that premium every day.

The fate of the market sentiment ratio generally looks the same—it's not necessarily zero, but more often: it remains alive but becomes mediocre, valuable but no longer explosive.

Don’t think this is decline. Actually, it’s a sign of asset maturity. It’s just that for dreamers, maturity often equals disappointment.

To be honest, a harsh truth—most people fail not because of poor judgment, but because they are unwilling to admit that the times have changed. They don’t want new opportunities; they just want a reason to justify their initial choices.

But the market never pays for anyone’s beliefs.

To those still calculating the market sentiment ratio: one thing to say—imagination can be priced once, but you can't set a price for a lifetime.

When assets start being dissected and calculated, the dream has already ended. $BTC is a witness to those who have been through it.