The most concerning signal is not whether the data exceeds expectations, but a more dangerous sign: the unemployment rate continues to rise, while non-farm payrolls keep declining. These two curves are diverging.

What does a continuous increase in the unemployment rate indicate? The "softening" of the labor market is not a temporary fluctuation but a real trend. Meanwhile, the number of new hires by companies is steadily decreasing, which means employers are actively reducing recruitment.

When these two events occur simultaneously, the conclusion is very clear—employment pressure is genuinely increasing.

For the Federal Reserve, this is not good news. Inflation can be endured, and time can solve it, but once employment issues arise, the entire policy margin for error will instantly tighten. The focus moving forward is no longer on "whether the next non-farm payroll report will improve," but on whether this divergence continues to widen or shows signs of easing. This widening trend will directly influence subsequent policy directions.