The US November non-farm payrolls data was released at 64,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%—this set of data dealt a cold shower to the market.

For BTC, the short-term trend is likely to remain volatile. But you need to look further ahead: in the medium term, driven by the interest rate cut cycle and institutional ETF funds, there is still considerable upside potential. In the long term, as asset positioning becomes higher and higher, a stepwise upward pattern will emerge.

**How to view the short term?**

The $85,000 to $95,000 range is the main battleground recently. $85,000 is currently holding up quite well, serving as short-term support. Looking upward, $94,000 to $95,000 is the real key resistance. To break through the $100,000 mark, this hurdle must be overcome.

The problem is, the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates in December, but BTC's rebound seems a bit weak, and market sentiment is still oscillating in the "extreme fear" zone. To truly break through, it still depends on continuous large inflows of ETF funds to give it a push. Conversely, once the $85,000 line is broken, the risk of a double bottom becomes imminent.