Tonight, a single data point could reshape the entire market sentiment.

The CME FedWatch Tool has just been updated, showing that before the December 16th (Beijing time) employment report, the market has become quite cautious about the Fed's policy stance early next year. In simple terms, most are betting that the Fed will hold steady in January.

Specifically—there's a 75.6% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged in January, with only a 24.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This large gap indicates that the market has little expectation of a rate cut in the near term.

But by March, the situation becomes more complex. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady drops to 49%, while the chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is only 8.6%, but a 42.4% probability reflects that the market believes at least one rate cut will occur. The uncertainty here clearly depends on upcoming economic data.

The key is tonight at 21:30 (Beijing time). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the November employment report, with expectations of 40,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The strength or weakness of this data will directly influence all the above probability forecasts.

You can think of it this way—if employment data underperforms, the market will be more convinced that the Fed will cut rates earlier; conversely, strong data will reinforce expectations of higher and longer-lasting rates. For the crypto world, this policy shift certainty is becoming increasingly important. The Fed's next two policy meetings are scheduled for January 30-31 and March 18-19, and the policy direction over these three months could determine the market trend for the entire coming year.