The November unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data released tonight are highly anticipated. Due to missing previous values and the large variance in November's figures, the market finds it quite difficult to make precise predictions.

From a game theory perspective, a 4.4% unemployment rate slightly above expectations, combined with non-farm payrolls slightly below expectations (around 50,000), represents the most ideal scenario of mild softness. Why? Because overly strong data would dampen expectations of rate cuts in 2026 and directly impact the rebound potential of risk assets; but poor data could easily trigger recession fears, further increasing market volatility.

It's quite ironic—The Federal Reserve has had a tough year. Policy space has been tightly constrained, swinging between inflation pressures and economic slowdown risks, and every move is heavily scrutinized. Want to cut rates? Fear of inflation rebound. Want to hold steady? Worry about economic stalling. This dilemma makes every step the central bank takes particularly cautious.