Recently, I looked at the Federal Reserve's December meeting decision, and it's quite interesting—this is the third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the benchmark interest rate down to the 3.5%-3.75% range. However, this vote was not so unanimous; there were 3 votes against, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, and two factions simply didn't want to move at all. Such disagreements have indeed been rare in recent years.

From the dot plot, the rate cut window in 2026 is basically closed, with only one possible cut remaining. This is a typical "hawkish rate cut" approach—supporting employment but still harboring doubts about inflation, with no plans for a significant easing for now.

In plain terms, the Federal Reserve is now walking a tightrope. It needs to stabilize growth on one side while preventing inflation from rebounding on the other. Slight fluctuations in economic data can cause the policy direction to shift sharply. This is also why the market has been so volatile over the past two months—everyone is guessing what the Fed will do next.