From Prediction to Reality: How Will the Crypto Market Validate Institutional Judgments in 2025

【Blockchain Rhythm】Asset management institutions recently released their top ten predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2026, continuing to be optimistic about the upward prospects of BTC, ETH, and SOL. Recalling their ten key predictions for the 2025 market at the end of last year, it’s now time for a review.

How did they do?

Honestly, out of the 10 predictions, only 3 were fully achieved, 4 were partially achieved, and the remaining 3 did not materialize. This level of accuracy is actually quite good in the prediction game.

The prediction that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana would hit new all-time highs was only realized by BTC. Although Bitcoin reached a new high, it did not break the $200,000 target (partially achieved). The expected capital inflow into BTC ETFs in 2025 is not expected to surpass 2024’s performance, which was a missed call.

Coinbase surpassing Charles Schwab and its stock price breaking $700? No. The highest it reached was $444.645, indicating that the market’s valuation still has its limits.

Doing the right things

The judgment that 2023 would be the first year of crypto IPOs was solidified, with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the US, truly opening up the market. Coinbase entering the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy entering the Nasdaq 100—both happened. Now mainstream US investors can indirectly access crypto assets through major index funds, which is real market recognition.

The meme coin craze driven by AI-initiated tokens? Somewhat. AI Meme coins did become a hot topic, but the overall scale has not yet surpassed the peak at the end of 2024.

More interestingly, the number of countries holding Bitcoin doubled—from 9-10 to over 20—indicating that BTC is evolving from an investment asset into part of sovereign asset allocation.

Policy progress

The US Department of Labor has indeed relaxed restrictions on cryptocurrencies within 401(k) pension plans, but the actual inflow of funds has not reached the staggering scale of hundreds of billions of dollars. Stablecoin legislation has been passed; from a peak market cap of about $310 billion, the goal to double to $400 billion was not achieved, but the direction is correct.

The real-world asset (RWA) tokenization track is hot, but its total market cap is only around $24-30 billion, still far from the $50 billion mark.

Farther outlook

An additional bold prediction for 2029: Bitcoin trading price exceeding $1 million per coin, with a total market cap surpassing $18 trillion, overtaking the gold market. This will require some time to verify.

Overall, this institution’s prediction framework remains quite clear—focusing on asset inflows, policy support, market structure, and ecological development. Some valuations are a bit overly optimistic, but the overall direction is well grasped. As for how 2026 will unfold, everyone can continue to follow their new predictions.