Looking at the November non-farm payroll data, superficially, the increase of 64,000 jobs exceeds the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate instead jumped to 4.6%, reaching a 21-year high since September 2002, well above the expected 4.4%. This is somewhat ironic—employment is increasing, yet the unemployment rate is also rising.

From an absolute number perspective, the additional tens of thousands of jobs are negligible compared to the total U.S. unemployed population. In the short term, it seems fine, but the long-term trend clearly points to an economic downturn, with unemployment continuing to rise.

What’s more upsetting is that this data revision revealed some tricks. Employment data for August and September were revised downward by 33,000, indicating that the previous figures were somewhat inflated. Coupled with the data missing or distorted due to the government shutdown in October, the credibility of the entire statistical system has been compromised.

Reasonably, the November non-farm payroll data is also suspect. The numbers have been tidied up to stabilize market confidence first, then policies will be adjusted based on actual conditions later. The Federal Reserve people are well aware of this and keep it under wraps.

In this light, expectations for rate cuts will only grow stronger. Perhaps as early as January, there could be an unexpected series of rate cuts without warning. For risk assets like BTC and ETH, a liquidity-rich environment usually means new opportunities.