In November, US labor market data was released, and the results are quite interesting—unemployment rate surged to 4.6%, hitting a recent high, and non-farm employment increased by 64,000 jobs month-over-month, both exceeding expectations. Sounds good? But don’t be fooled by the surface; the real signal comes from the consumption side. October retail sales were flat month-over-month, whereas the expectation was for positive growth, indicating that consumers’ wallets are indeed shrinking.

Market reactions were swift. Once the data was released, US stock futures immediately turned higher, the US dollar index fell below the 98 level, and the euro and pound strengthened accordingly. Gold also rebounded sharply. Most importantly, CME futures data shows that the market is significantly increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January next year.

Why is this data so important? Because both employment and consumption are cooling simultaneously, which is a clear signal—the economy is losing momentum. Slowing employment combined with weak consumption opens the door for the Fed to shift its policy stance. The key factors to watch next are inflation data and the Fed’s attitude. These two elements will determine how far the subsequent market can go.

For the crypto space, the expectation of easing means liquidity could become more abundant again, which usually supports risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). But don’t overestimate; the specific market trend still depends on external factors like the dollar index and US stock performance. In the short term, keep an eye on the performance of hot tokens like $LUNA, $SUI, and $ZEC, as they often reflect market expectations for the broader cycle.