A macro risk point that is easily overlooked—the Bank of Japan.

The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week. At first glance, this seems to be a yen appreciation issue, but it actually involves a rebalancing of the global liquidity landscape.

What will happen once the rate hike is implemented? The yen will strengthen, a large number of yen interest rate trades will be forced to close, and global funds will start flowing back into Japan. The result is that risk assets are generally under pressure. Such macro adjustments often lead to sharp volatility—historically, in similar situations, Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced rapid declines of 20%-30%.

This kind of volatility cannot be explained by candlestick patterns, nor is it a technical signal issue. Essentially, it is the market’s reaction when liquidity is drained—funds rapidly retreat from risk assets to safe-haven assets.

Overall, the biggest risk currently hanging over the market is not a certain altcoin, but the sword held by the Bank of Japan. Central bank policy adjustments will directly rewrite global capital flows, which is an invisible determinant of the short-term trend in the crypto market.