The latest US unemployment rate data has been released: 4.6%, slightly higher than the expected 4.5%. What does this mean? On the surface, it indicates that employment is weakening. According to the Federal Reserve's logical chain, this should be a reason for them to cut interest rates. But there's a key point that is easily overlooked — this is not "the Federal Reserve has already cut rates," but rather "rate cuts are becoming more likely." The two are completely different.

Markets often digest such data in two stages. The first stage is short-term reaction, usually within 1 to 3 days. At this point, the initial response from institutions and capital is: the economy is slowing down. However, this judgment does not necessarily lead to an increase in risk assets. On the contrary, many institutions choose to wait and even reduce their positions. For BTC, this stage hardly signals any strong bullish news; instead, it is more likely to see oscillations or slight declines.

The second stage is the medium-term reaction, which typically takes several weeks to fully manifest. But for BTC to truly benefit, more conditions need to be met simultaneously: subsequent CPI data must also decline, Federal Reserve officials need to clearly state the rate cut timetable, and market liquidity must truly start to flow back. Frankly, none of these conditions have been confirmed yet.

Now, returning to BTC's technical analysis. The daily chart is in a downtrend, with all moving averages under pressure. Although a rebound has occurred, the volume is shrinking, and the price is still stuck in the "danger zone" between 86k and 89k. From this structure, non-farm payroll data will only increase the probability of market oscillation, far from enough to reverse the overall trend. If your previous thinking was to short after a rebound, the current logic has shifted to "wait for a higher, safer rebound level before entering short positions."