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Policy Storms Approaching — This Time, It Might Be Serious

Tonight, the US November Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, and the market's fate will be decided. Sounds exaggerated? But in the face of data, it’s truly so.

If the data is weaker than expected, expectations for rate cuts will immediately heat up. Capital will surge into the crypto market — not to follow the trend and jump in, but to confirm the trend’s direction. Conversely, if the data is strong, the dream of rate cuts will be shattered, liquidity will tighten immediately, and market reactions could be quite fierce.

The problem is, that’s not all. The Bank of Japan is also stirring things up. Every time they raise interest rates, Bitcoin performs a sharp dive — it’s become this year's curse. Now, global funds are already tight, and liquidity at this year’s end is even scarcer. Last night, BTC plunged to 86,000, and even touching 95,000 was out of reach — there’s a reason for that.

In the short term, 80,000 might be tested again. But in the long term? Institutional moves are already in place; the 200,000 figure isn’t a pipe dream — it’s just a matter of time.

Tonight’s non-farm data, will it be the fuse that ignites the year-end rally, or will it douse the bulls’ enthusiasm? What do you all think?