Japan's rate hike doesn't seem like a big deal, but what truly worries are the invisible slow variables—they are quietly reshaping the flow of global funds.

Many people spend all day watching candlestick charts but fail to notice a phenomenon: market crashes have never come out of nowhere.

The black swan events that can truly trigger a global market crash are actually just two types. Both are unlikely, but once they occur, the stock market, crypto market, and bond market are all affected.

**Scenario 1: Japan is forced to accelerate rate hikes**

If the yen continues to depreciate uncontrollably, inflation significantly exceeds expectations, and the central bank's policy signals start to waver—Japan could shift from "gradual rate hikes" to "aggressive tightening."

What consequences might this trigger? The long-standing yen carry trade chain could collapse in an instant.

Imagine this cycle: global investors borrow cheap yen, then pour funds into risk assets worldwide—stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies—all absorbing this cheap liquidity. Once this chain breaks, it won't be a gentle adjustment but a chain reaction of sell-offs. That would be a true deleveraging storm.

**Scenario 2: Japan hikes rates while the US reinitiates tightening**

A more terrifying combination is this: Japan is tightening, while the US, due to inflation or financial risks, reverts to aggressive rate hikes.

The result? Global liquidity could be drained directly.

Remember one thing: the source of risk always comes from the US. Japan is just an additional factor, but if these two events happen simultaneously, it could deliver a heavy blow to global stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds.

Traders who truly understand the market don't spend their time guessing when a black swan will appear; they anticipate how those slow-moving variables will evolve in which direction. By the time the market reacts, it's usually already too late.