The U.S. government recently released the combined employment data, and the market's focus on the October and November figures has finally materialized. Non-farm employment increased by 64,000, indeed surpassing the expected level of 50,000. From this perspective, the U.S. economy is not necessarily in recession. But here’s an interesting comparison — the unemployment rate actually rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%.

Do you still remember the Federal Reserve's forecast for the end-of-year interest rate? It was 4.5%. Now, with the employment data in front of us, what does the significantly higher-than-expected unemployment rate indicate? It suggests that the U.S. employment situation is not as solid as it appears on the surface. Meanwhile, the growth rate of average hourly wages also did not outpace expectations, which precisely reflects that inflationary pressures are gradually easing.

It's like using the right dosage — a higher unemployment rate means the Federal Reserve is less likely to maintain a hawkish stance, but moderate inflation does not require aggressive easing. The policy space is being precisely managed.

Now, returning to the crypto market, especially BTC. Under this data framework, the probability of continued one-sided sharp declines has significantly decreased. But don’t expect a straight upward surge; volatile fluctuations are likely to become the norm. After all, the bottom formation still needs time to complete, and the direction has not been established so quickly.