Last night, the US non-farm payrolls data was released, and the market instantly plunged into a "plot twist"—behind the seemingly rosy employment figures, there are signals of a weakening labor market. What does this really mean? Let’s take a closer look.

**First, look at these numbers**

In November, 64,000 new jobs were added, which at first glance exceeded the market expectation of 45,000—pretty good. But the next two figures are more concerning—unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than both the previous value and expectations; and October’s data was significantly revised downward, with 105,000 jobs cut, marking the worst month since 2020. While employment numbers look good, the unemployment rate is climbing—such a contradictory situation is quite rare.

**The truth behind the data**

The seemingly positive new jobs number actually cannot hide the fact that the labor market is "cooling down." The rising unemployment rate, the sharp revision of the previous month’s data, and slowing wage growth—these signals together suggest that the employment market is gradually shifting from overheating to a more normal state.

Some analysis firms pointed out that the bizarre downward revision in October’s data was largely due to a one-time impact from government personnel changes. In other words, you need to look at the data from the past two months together, rather than focusing on a single month. Only then can you see the true trend.

**How the market interprets this report**

You might think that conflicting data would confuse the market, but in fact, it reinforces expectations of looser monetary policy. Why? Because the logic is simple: although the employment market hasn't "collapsed," there are clear signs of fatigue. This kind of neither-extreme nor healthy state provides the Federal Reserve with ample justification for "preemptive rate cuts." After the data was released, investors’ expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 became even more solidified.

Many major institutions have issued warnings that, due to disruptions from the previous government shutdown, the report contains too much noise and should not be over-interpreted. To truly understand the long-term trend, we may need to wait until the December data is released in January next year.

**Implications for the crypto market**

From the perspective of crypto assets, the current "lukewarm" employment situation is actually ideal. Why? On one hand, the labor market hasn't collapsed, so the Fed won't be forced to adopt a hawkish stance (rate hikes); on the other hand, there are enough reasons for the market to continue expecting liquidity support. Under this expectation, risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—have a solid underlying support—continuous market liquidity.

As economic data becomes more complex and contradictory, markets tend to gradually reach new consensus amid divergence of opinions. This non-farm payroll report may not directly change the Fed’s pace of action, but it reinforces market confidence in the persistence of an easing environment. For those paying attention to the crypto market, this confidence itself is the most important.

*Disclaimer: This article is for macro data interpretation only and does not constitute investment advice.*