Yesterday, the US non-farm payroll data was released, and everyone who saw the data was a bit confused. The November新增就业6.4万人, which indeed exceeded expectations, seemed like good news at first glance. But then, looking at the unemployment rate, it jumped directly to 4.6%, and October's employment data was also significantly revised downward, with layoffs reaching 105,000— the largest monthly decline since the pandemic.

Honestly, this data feels like someone is simultaneously submitting resumes at a job fair and worrying about being laid off— the mixed signals are very obvious. But upon closer analysis, the signals it reveals are quite clear: the unemployment rate continues to rise, earlier data has been sharply revised, and wage growth is also slowing down. What does this indicate? The labor market is quietly cooling off.

The market reacted very quickly, immediately understanding this script— isn't this exactly the kind of "soft landing" the Federal Reserve dreams of? The economy isn't crashing hard, but it is starting to weaken, creating a perfect reason for rate cuts. So, once the data was released that day, expectations of at least two rate cuts next year were basically set in stone, and there are even voices suggesting the Fed might act sooner.

However, Goldman Sachs threw some cold water on this, pointing out that the report contains too much "noise," partly due to the government shutdown disrupting the data. To truly see the real trend in the labor market, we might have to wait until January's data.

For the crypto market, this data is actually like a big gift— the economy won't be too cold or too hot, and the Fed is unlikely to turn hawkish; instead, it might even become more dovish. With such expectations of easing, the market's liquidity outlook is supported, and holdings of $ETH, $ZEC, $ASTER , and other coins are also more stable. Once easing expectations form, there’s a reason for funds to enter the market.

Ultimately, this seemingly contradictory data may not be bad for the crypto market. The key is to watch what the Fed does next— whether it will start the rate cut cycle early or continue to observe before acting.