After the release of the non-farm payroll data, many people became optimistic due to the better-than-expected employment figures, but the real key points have been overlooked.

Let's start with the data itself. In November, 64,000 new jobs were added, which is indeed better than the market expectation of 50,000, indicating that the US economy is still expanding. But the crucial detail lies in the unemployment rate—4.6%, not only higher than the expected 4.4% but also the highest level since September 2021. This is the real warning signal.

Why is this so critical? Because an increasing unemployment rate means the labor market is softening. Companies are still hiring, but the pace has clearly slowed down. Marginal jobs are beginning to disappear, hiring standards are rising, and even wage growth is slowing down. In other words, employment numbers are being sustained by inertia, but quality is deteriorating. This is a typical sign of the lagging effects of policy tightening beginning to show.

The market's reaction was very direct. After the non-farm data was released, federal funds futures immediately moved: the probability of a rate cut in January next year jumped from 22% to 31%, and interest rate futures for 2026 are pricing in two rate cuts throughout next year, with the entire easing forecast accumulating to 58 basis points. This is not Wall Street speculation but a judgment made with real money—cutting rates is no longer a question of if, but when.

For the crypto market, this macro setup is actually ideal. The non-farm payrolls didn't collapse, so risk assets won't immediately crash; if unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve will have enough reason to change its tone. The market has already begun to anticipate liquidity will gradually loosen, which is the window most conducive to a rebound in crypto assets.

Next, three points to watch: whether subsequent non-farm data will continue to show a "weak but stable" trend, whether the unemployment rate can stay above 4.5%, and whether Federal Reserve officials will start signaling "no need for excessive tightening."

Overall, there's no need to rush in based on one data point, nor to panic excessively. The macro wind is turning, blowing toward risk assets. Be patient, keep your powder dry—true opportunities usually don't come with a trumpet warning.